Domestic air traffic is estimated to increase to 164-17 crore (164-170 million) passengers in fiscal year 2025. Rating agency ICRA has made this latest estimate on Tuesday. Domestic air traffic is estimated to grow by 7-10 per cent in the current financial year, while the aviation industry’s loss during the same period is estimated to be Rs 2,000-3,000 crore. According to PTI news, ICRA said that domestic air passenger traffic in the first half of 2024-25 stood at 7.93 crore, which shows an annual growth of 5.3 percent. This was partly influenced by extreme heat and other weather-related disruptions.
‘Stable’ outlook on Indian aviation industry
According to the news, the international passenger traffic rate for Indian airlines companies increased to 16.2 percent in the first half of the current financial year. ICRA maintained a ‘stable’ outlook on the Indian aviation industry amid sustained growth in domestic and international air passenger traffic in FY2025, the rating agency said. Kinjal Shah, senior vice-president and co-group head at Icra, said the industry is expected to post a net loss of Rs 20-30 billion in FY2025 and FY2026, compared to previous losses supported by better pricing power of airlines. is quite low.
Some decrease compared to FY 2024
The gap between revenue per available seat kilometer and cost per available seat kilometer in H1FY2025 saw some narrowing compared to FY2024 due to higher fuel prices and overall increased costs amid aircraft grounding , while airlines attempted to maintain adequate passenger load factors resulting in a slight decline in yields. Still, it is expected to pick up in the second half of FY2025 amid healthy passenger traffic, Shah said.
ATF prices fall
The cost infra of any airlines is generally driven by two key things – Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices and INR-USD movement. On a year-on-year basis, ICRA said average ATF prices declined by 6.8 per cent to Rs 96,192/kl in the first eight months of FY2025, although this was lower than the pre-Covid period (first eight months of FY2020). Higher than the level of Rs 65,261/kl.
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